By Dennis Byron, Analyst, ebizQ , 01/21/2008Print this article Email this article Talk Back! Write to Editor
The Size of the Opportunity
The consensus estimate in the industry is that the overall software market was about $250 billion in 2007, growing to near $300 billion in 2010-2011. The dotted lines in the following illustration indicate ebizQ estimates for the size of the OSS portion of that revenue. As discussed above, the two pieces include:
Although imprecise, it is clear that the two dotted-lines are moving towards each other and the rate at which they move will increase in 2008 and beyond.
Figure. Graphic Representation of the Software Market Revenue Flow Showing OSS- and Closed-source convergence
The market will see a convergence of closed and open source software such that the terms will eventually become meaningless from a research perspective. Competing for the two pieces of the software market pie that is OSS-related are the leading traditional software suppliers (almost all of which have become OSS/proprietary hybrids as described above); classic providers of both IT and business services such as outsourcing or payroll processing; and the small remaining group of OSS pure plays. Over time, these divisions by types of revenue and suppliers providing the software will become less and less relevant to IT users: they just want good software that doesnt break often but when it does, a substantial company is available to fix it. That is probably the most important research finding relative to IT users.