Year-end Open Source Software reviews of past and future tell an interesting story - Open Source Software Up the Stack

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December 26, 2007
Year-end Open Source Software reviews of past and future tell an interesting story

A drumbeat of propaganda in the blogosphere says OSS pure plays are the place to be for technology users and investors. ebizQ research, the first of which appears on this site today, finds the trends run against that propaganda on the blogosphere.

The first research piece looks back at 2007. It finds that the most important trends in 2007 were that the OSS culture became more independent, the OSS development model sorted itself into three tracks (OSS-related software with restricted Ts&Cs, OSI-licensed software, and truly free as in air FSF-licensed software), and that the OSS services business grew deeper and wider. Oh, it also says there is no such think as an OSS market but you'll have to read the article to get the point.

Subsequent articles appearing in January will look at 2008 and beyond, and specifically list ebizQ's estimate of the leading OSS market players. Despite my opinion that there is no OSS market, no self-respecting year-end journalism can be released without a list.

The forthcoming research finds that one OSS pure play such as Red Hat may break out of its roots and take a place alongside the existing major software suppliers as a software market leader. But we found that it is the existing suppliers (that is, Adobe, BMC, Google, IBM, Oracle, SAP, TIBCO, and so forth) that will dominate OSS in 2008 and beyond. These suppliers will
• Provide the interoperability that OSA research says users are demanding
• Progressively move up the stack to provide applications functionality to match the operating infrastructure users have become accustomed to with GNU/Linux and saw in the midstack in 2007
• Monetize their OSS related offerings in such a way as to dominate the software market the way they always have.

IBM may in fact already realize more OSS-related revenue than Red Hat. And Microsoft will even join the movement. This is not a bad development for users because it means OSS performs functions users need, it works well, and it does not break down any more often than closed-source code. Our major finding is that that is all users really care about.