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Matt Asay, business development VP at content-management software/service provider Alfresco and prolific blogger about open source software (OSS), attacks the International Herald Tribune (IHT) in this recent post. Matt’s reading something into this IHT article that I don’t see and then spinning it to make points unsupported by the facts. I humbly submit that I don't see what he sees because philosophically I’m agnostic about OSS and Matt’s fiercely all-knowing about it.

Asay's cherry picking like a good progagandist. For example, he hints at facts from a recent BusinessWeek article by Aaron Ricadela that says MySQL might go public as a proof point of OSS momentum. What he does not tell you is that that same BusinessWeek article (also on LinuxInsider) reports that MySQL is only getting one in a thousand downloads to turn into paying business, which is one of the points of the IHT article. (The BusinessWeek article does not provide its source for its data but it appears in a sentence preceded by a quote from MySQL's chairman and followed by a quote from MySQL's founder. I saw a similarly low ratio of conversions with JBoss when I was doing middleware research for IDC, a statistic borne out in JBoss revenue numbers revealed in subsequent Red Hat SEC filings after Red Hat acquired JBoss.)

I have had that word “agnostic” sitting up there beside my face all year and it’s probably time to explain what I mean. My difference with Matt and other fervent all-knowing OSS partisans is not religious or theological; it is strictly philosophical. Religious or theological analogies often associated with using the word agnostic are really not good analogs. Not to mention the fact that it does make sense to follow the old rule of keeping religion (or politics) out of a conversation (or a blog).

My philosophy is that “I don’t know everything.” Just as agnostics believe that we mere mortals can't know first truths and utlitmate causality, I don’t know the first truths and ultimate causes, etc. about OSS. I know only what I can see/hear when I talk to users about it. Or what I can clearly deduce from studying the numbers from statistically significant surveys. There’s a “senior” in front of my title on my business card and somewhere on this web site because I get a discount at the movies, not because I know more than than anyone else through some revelations. (And there's no inside baseball here either; leaks from the inside are another major source of spin. With someone like Matt Asay who is both an insider and someone with a revealed philosophy that the rest of us can't see, spin turns into a corkscrew.)

Having gone down the all-knowing road 25 years ago in the minicomputer wars, I do know agnosticism is the right way to go philosophically. It makes common sense as well because as the minicomputer marketers were shooting at each other, workstations and PCs marched right in and took over the industry. To some extent that has already happened to the OSS movement in the way it has been co-opted by the leading IT providers (although I could also argue that the IT providers have been taken over by the OSS community).

Unlike Matt apparently, when I look at IDC numbers I see users spending more and more on IT services and IT-based business services than ever and not really caring at all about what technology’s under the covers of those services. That's what makes the OSS movement so interesting and worthy of this new Open Source microsite on ebizQ. OSS is going to stand or fall on its technical merits and functionality--like mufflers and transmissions in the auto industry--and not on PR spin from anyone.

Unlike Matt, I see the ISVs and IT-based services providers that I talk to—from Google to my local savings bank—react to these users, their customers, and demand open choice, including OSS but also legacy systems and Windows along with OSS and choice in their associated middleware and packaged applications. The channel, including OEMs as well as ISVs and SaaS providers, will be making the decisions but the OSS community will be building out the infrastructure in an almost pure environment in which the cream will rise to the top.

Unlike Matt, I see the LAMP stack no more or less prevalent than the WAMP stack in the long run (Linux eventually replacing all Unix) with the Oracle database, maybe an open sourced Oracle database, much more pervasive than any other offering.

Where there are attempts at conversion to a philosophy in the OSS movement, users are drawing the blinds and locking their doors. And when I look at this IHT article, I see "just the facts ma’am" with no philosophy masquerading as fact (there are a few factual errors however). I hope to provide the same as ebizQ increases coverage of OSS. If I fail, call me on it.

Posted by dennisb in OSS Culture |Digg This|Add to del.icio.us

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