It's that time (again) when 'arm-chair visionaries' like me sit back and attempt to predict the next 12 months of technologies. In preparation, I did a quick search to see what others predicted for 2009. Some were better than others. The more conservative prognosticators predicted a Twitter growth explosion and growth in interest in Cloud Computing. Edgier predictions included 'email will die' and 'WiFi will be ubiquitous'. And of course there were some things no one predicted, such as Amazon digital book sales would outpace paper book sales on Christmas Day 2009. But overall I think the 2009 predictions were pretty conservative and unexciting, perhaps due to the looming recession.
However, as the US economy is starting to stabilize and we have a year of pent up technology cabin fever, I predict 2010 will be a technology innovation 'hockey stick year' (that visionary-speak for exponential growth). So, with that high standard in mind, here's what my crystal ball tells me:
1. Apple brings sexy back to books. Apple releases the 'LiveBook'. It looks like a 7" iPhone but it's meant for traditional book reading and the newly created Apple iPub publishing platform. LiveBook not only let's you interact live with books using iPhone touch gestures, but let's you interact with LiveBooks using text, live video, interactive widgets, social networking and collaboration. You can also write you own LiveBooks and publish via my iPhone Apps.
2. Enterprise Mashups have a 'CNN moment'. After one federal staffer creates a mashup that uncovers millions of dollars lost to Medicare fraud, Wolf Blitzer asks, 'Why doesn't every government employee have this at his or her disposal?' President Obama asks: "Is this the technology to connect-the-dots?"
3. Gartner turns back time. Realizing Enterprise Mashups went from Cool to Useful, Gartner puts Enterprise Mashups on their 2011 'Technologies to Watch' list. And using their previously-unknown time-shifting powers, they also retroactively insert it into their 2010 Watch List.
4. Enterprises shift from 'Me' to 'We'. It's no surprise that the key to increased employee productivity is to reduce cost and time needed to make important decisions. In 2009, there was much talk about "customized" data and widgets so users could make decisions faster, aka 'Me.' In 2010, the focus will be on collaboration and group decision, aka 'We.'
5. Google gets into the auto business. Google launches a solar car company called Google Cars which quickly becomes known on the street as 'Gars.' Gars aren't for sale; they are free to use. Gars are equipped with a 360 degree camera used for Google Street views and powerful WiMax Mesh antennas. Both inside and outside are live ads based on Google's new Geospatial-based ad auctioning system. You reserve a Gar for use for a period of time and pick it up at one of the 'Garplexes'. Your reservation priority is based on your Google points which are in turn based on how much time you spend with other Google products. Whether it's Google Droid, Gmail or Google Docs, you're always racking up points and earning the right to drive a Gar.
6. The BI industry learns to copy but forgets how to read. The big BI vendors see the impact agile, self-service technologies (like Enterprise Mashups!) are having on their customers and launches an all out assault trying to minimize mashups as a 'feature' of their massive BI systems. Unfortunately, they never read the Innovators Dilemma and fail to see that they are overshooting the market and Enterprise Mashup vendors are silently taking away BI Mashup market-share.
7. TIME Magazine names 2010 the 'Real-time' Year. Enterprises want their information as fast and as quick as a Google web search. Everyone knows it (but maybe the BI guys) and in recognition of this TIME also names Speedy Gonzalez as Person of the Year, although they say he 'isn't as fast as he used to be'.
8. Oracle acquires 9,782 more companies. This prediction doesn't take much insight, truthfully. Unfortunately, one of these 9,782 companies went out of business three years ago and another they already acquired two years earlier. I also predict Larry Ellison is not pleased with this.
9. Microsoft sells more SharePoint. (Yes, I know, I am prescient.) In 2010 Microsoft sells more licenses than all other software from all other software vendors combined. This drives Gartner to release the 'SharePoint Magic Quadrant', only to later realize Microsoft is the only one on it. Bill Gates is quite pleased with this and Larry Ellison is not.
10. The DIY folks form a union. In 2010 Generation Y-ers form the 'Open Self-Service Alliance' touting 'We can do it ourselves,' demand that IT support them, rewriting the 20/80 equation.
That's my top 10 or 2010. Love them, hate them, critique them, but remember where you heard them first. Good luck to all in this tech-packed New Year.
How very insightful Johnny. No comment on who will win on the bachelor?
So now an ad like this simply makes the brazen claim that the wealth is trickling back down. What’s the matter, you can’t see it? Squint harder. Don’t worry, it’ll get to you.
How very insightful Johnny. No comment on who will win on the bachelor
In the real world, we use apparent information, coupled with context, experience and stereotypes, to size each other up. This sort of intuition is useful and often accurate, but it's also fallible.
Love them John, mostly you were spot-on! Well done, i'l be checking back to see your predictions in the future! lol
Couldn?t be written any better. Reading this post reminds me of my old room mate! He always kept talking about this. I will forward this article to him. Pretty sure he will have a good read. Thanks for sharing!