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Do You Think That the Evolution of the Cloud is Decades Away?

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Do you agree with what Brain Stevens, CTO of Red Hat, said recentlythat the adoption of cloud isn't going to be in 2010, but that it will be several decades before we see the kind of evolution and maturation necessary to sway the big business to the cloud?

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  • Evolution of the cloud will obviously happen over time, the first phase will be getting servers, networks, and storage virtualized - the "build it" phase. Industry standards will need to emerge to help users gain comfort that they are not locked into solutions and that their information and applications are portable across vendors.

    What will be interesting is the new ways people are able to leverage the cloud once we are out of the "build it" phase. Simplier business intelligence, application mash ups, cloud brokers... Others?

    Evolution in general does take decades. For example, although freon was invented in the 1920s and used in refrigerators in the 1930s, it wasn't until the mid 40s when refrigerators went into mass market production, and widespread adoption occurred.

    It's not clear what the end point for the cloud is though for us to actually pinpoint a timeline to decades? Do you mean offering IT as a utility that is used by the mass market?

  • Make no mistake Cloud Computing is already here just as much as Open Source (for example, Red Hat Linux) is already here. Asking the question whether Cloud Computing will ever be mature enough where every big business is comfortable using a Public Cloud is similar to asking whether Open Source will ever be mature enough where no business will ever use any commercial software.

    Is Cloud Computing only limited to Public Clouds? Even the most widely accepted definition of Cloud Computing from NIST identifies three other deployment models for Clouds - Private, Hybrid, and Community Clouds. With that in mind, isn't it ridiculous to claim that the adoption of Clouds is decades away? There are already so many well-documented examples of businesses (and government agencies) successfully adopting Cloud Computing.

  • Evolution, more specifically, sustaining evolution [Clayton Christensen, Innovator Dilemma] is natural progress seen in all technologies. Most users can always find things they don’t like about technology they are using, which leads to a wealth of incremental improvements. Some of which are more beneficial than others.

    A more interesting insight, however, comes from addressing the question, “What is the next disruptive technology after the cloud?? Think about it for a second. What is the technology, that does not exist today, that will replace cloud computing tomorrow? Answer this riddle and you might be the next Amazon.

  • Decades sounds like an exaggeration. We are already seeing it adopted all around us. A recent PEW study found most IT stakeholders think we will see wide cloud adoption by 2020 (thats not decades). Although server and desktop visualization may take longer, most enterprise applications will start residing on the cloud much before that.

  • Is cloud really the phenomenon or is cloud a "decade in" evolution of high speed communications and the Internet? After all, isn't cloud computing a variation of compute time sharing from the 70's? Would cloud be practical and a reality if we did not have high speed telecommunications? Without it, cloud processing would be hopelessly I/O bound or hugely expensive due to the leased lines it would require (T1 to the house anyone?).

    Regarding cloud itself, there is much more to come. As has been stated in other threads, the evolution will involve high speed telecommunications, digital content delivery, ubiquitous compute power and a push to the periphery of the network. That's when things get really exciting. Maybe that's cloud 4.0

  • Adoption and evolution are too different things...No doubt Public Clouds need to evolve more than private clouds to have a massive impact on public cloud adoption. However, even with massive evolution, there are basic issues that I cannot see going away - such as knowing the exact location of where data is stored, ensuring read only views, restricting access to physical machines etc etc.

    Everything in IT evolves, not often do we see something that is ground breaking, and I dont accept that Cloud Computing is anything ground breaking. Cloud computing is simply an evolution of networks that we have been utilising for a long time...In decades time, I dont see Public Clouds in the format we see them today, and I am not sure we will even be using the term "cloud" if I am honest...

  • Brian's an old buddy, but I have to wonder whether there was more to the quotation than is shown... because as it stands, it seems demonstrably incorrect. For example, at CloudShare we list as (large, paying) customers Cisco, VMware, McAfee, Alcatel-Lucent, Websense -- and many others (a few thousand in cloudshare.com/pro !). Amazon lists Ford, Boeing, and similar ilk. Eucalyptus has Wall Street names, VMware touts huge companies purchasing to create internal clouds -- in short, while maturation is an ongoing process, "several decades" seems to be hedging a few bets. (Several decades -past- we were barely out of vacuum tubes, for example!)

  • Here is my two cents.
    We have already walked through "evolution and maturation", approx. a couple of decades in network technologies and virtualization technologies. Then, now we come up with the new term "cloud", a teenage girl/boy. The one, oneself believes omnipotent, actually soon becomes mature enough.

    Since ARPANET and Mosaic, network technologies are mature enough.

    When IBM RS6000 had optical fiber direct connection among mother boards, I was wondering about applications. It should be originated for big scientific calculations to provide larger memory spaces and power, but I was wondering other applications. Then, Oracle came up with Cluster and memory fusion technologies, Xen, VMWare, and on and on. Now virtualization technologies are mature enough.

    The idea, providing computational resources (hardware, software) as a service came up early 2000' or late 1990', I guess. If my memory is correct, in the time frame, Larry Ellison mentioned in one of Oracle Open World events, "Software becomes available like electricity or water. Electricity is generated in facilities located somewhere, and available for us on plug-in basis via grids", may not be precise enough, but something like this. My apologies, it was long enough ago.

    Hence, I don’t think cloud computing is decades away, much sooner.

  • Decades is so 80's!

    It is even possible that there's plenty of things going on that's undetected because as much as the web has provided that little voice a 'voice', the biggies still dominate the conversations. That being said, biggies are more into incrementals (and maintaining status quo to offset product and service investments).

    Betting that cloud innovations are continuously rolling out; it's just a matter of time and keeping ears to the ground.

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