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Enterprise Architecture Matters

Adrian Grigoriu

The Mobile Broadband Growth Law

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Put together some time ago while working in mobile telecoms. I called it Adrian's Mobile Broadband Law. Lack of imagination perhaps. At the time, I produced it in the desire to forecast the rates to come in the mobile arena, so that I could understand what kind of mobile products, applications and terminals should be available to take advantage of it. It would be a good indication what your iPhone can do in the near future.

Just as an indication, according to my calculations then (now lost in the vacuum of time), to be able to get this broadband on a similar scale with the fix broadband, an investment to quadruple the number of basestations in the network is necessary.

Also, the average mobile downlink speed would be around an order of magnitude lower compared to that of the co-existing fix broadband, if I remember well my own conclusions. 

Essentially it is an extension of Moore's law. Adrian's Mobile Broadband Law says that downlink speed will double every year and a half. 

Simplistically put, my explanation is that every gain in this domain is achieved nowadays through digital signal processing. Therefore there is a direct depedency between the processing power (still obeying Moore's Law)  and the transmission rate. The assessment was verified only to a certain degree though. So use it with care. 

But, cutting to the chase, here it is:

  mobilebroadbandforecasttool1.jpg   This is not part of the Enterprise Architecture post series...

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Adrian Grigoriu blogs about everything relating to enterprise and business architecture, SOA, frameworks, design, planning, execution, organization and related issues.

Adrian Grigoriu

Adrian is an executive consultant in enterprise architecture, former head of enterprise architecture at Ofcom, the spectrum and broadcasting U.K. regulatory agency and chief architect at TM Forum, an organization providing a reference integrated business architecture framework, best practices and standards for the telecommunications and digital media industries. He also was a high technology, enterprise architecture and strategy senior manager at Accenture and Vodafone, and a principal consultant and lead architect at Qantas, Logica, Lucent Bell Labs and Nokia. He is the author of two books on enterprise architecture development available on Kindle and published articles with BPTrends, the Microsoft Architecture Journal and the EI magazine. Shortlisted by Computer Weekly for the IT Industry blogger of the year 2011.

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