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Andre Yee

Cloud Computing Predictions for 2010

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My friend David Linthicum got into the game early, publishing his list of cloud computing predictions while I was still enjoying my eggnog... others have weighed in with their own list. Since it's still relatively early in 2010, I thought I'd start the year with my own "predictions" list. In no particular order of importance, here they are -

1. Next Generation Cloud Applications Emerge

SaaS isn't going away but if you consider how long SaaS has been around - 10 years or more - it's shouldn't be surprising to see a new generation of cloud applications emerge. This new cloud application model will combine RIA client with true elastic capacity and scale. These aren't changes that are superficial or nominal - first generation SaaS apps built in the age of static web tend to have a stilted user experience. New generation cloud apps will have the rich interactivity of desktop apps and allow users to work in disconnected mode whenever required. Think of where Google Gears has taken us in 2009 and extrapolate forward into 2010 coupled with the benefit of true elasticity which unfortunately many SaaS applications still cannot offer.

2. Business Applications Get Social

It's already happening but the two major technology trends in the past year - cloud computing and social media - will converge, at least conceptually. Enterprise cloud applications will get re-factored with a social dimension. You've seen it emerge with Oracle's Social CRM and Salesforce has up the ante in a big way with Chatter. As enterprises seek to leverage the "power of social" with Twitter, Facebook or Linkedin, it's a natural progression to look at how to build the benefits of social computing into business applications.

3. More Standards for Cloud Computing

Look, I'm not a big proponent of industry standards groups but there's no denying that the need for standards, especially in a number of critical areas like data portability. For cloud computing to take "the next step", the industry will have to make it easier to integrate, move data from one provider to another and enable. All this is going to drive increasing momentum for industry standards. Whether these standards will make lasting impact is another thing altogether.

4. Secondary Cloud Tools Will Emerge

For cloud computing to continue to gain traction beyond the SMB space, vendors are going to have to provide enterprise IT managers with capability for monitoring SLAs, managing change control, securing transactions and orchestrating business processes. It happens everytime - the initial wave of innovation on a new platform is quickly followed by the need for tools to manage and secure the platform. In 2010, expect to see vendors that champion these solutions emerge in a big way.

5. Big Exits for Innovative Cloud Computing Startups.

As bigger players like Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle and Google are competing in the cloud computing arena, they will gobble up smaller innovative companies in the process. Look for vendors that develop the previously mentioned "secondary" tools to be among the targets for these major players.

Here's a bonus prediction: Despite his initial disdain for the hype around cloud computing, don't be surprised if Larry Ellison will get cloud religion and become a leading booster for the space.

4 Comments

I think the cloud computing startups are going to be the big story in 2010. There are already 100s of applications available as SaaS and I've yet to search for an app that isn't available online. I don't see a huge growth in backend providers, as that requires way too much capital investment and risk.

Cloud computing is getting bigger and better, today. More companies and individuals are curious about it. We heard bad and positive feedbacks from people around the globe. If you were to ask, what do you think the cloud computing could do more for
the us? Would you mind sharing your ideas please?

The industry seems to be gaining momentum and a couple companies stand out to me. Dropbox for personal use and Egnyte for business are my two favorites.

One major point that I think we may be the first ones to point out is being missed by all of the cloud prediction blogs...

So here's is my prediction.

The ICT industry is heading towards being one of the biggest emitters of green house gasses by 2020 (McKinsey), and cloud computing is simply hastening that future because of the tremendous growth rate and the dirty energy being used by the cloud providers. Consumer pressure and carbon taxes will drive a shift in the ICT industry towards green energy sources and better efficiencies. This will lead to an even greater adoption of cloud computing spurring a second wave of the cloud market growth. Then enterprises will have even less reasons not to go to public clouds that can more easily adopt cleaner energy sources.

Wether this happens in 2010 or later only time can tell but I guess some people agree with me seeing we got selected as one of the 10 hottest startups in cloud computing by GigaOm.

cheers
Eirikur Hrafnsson, CEO
Greenqloud, the world's first truly green public compute cloud
http://www.greenqloud.com

Andre Yee blogs about cloud computing, SaaS, Web 2.0 and other emerging technologies that matter to businesses.

Andre Yee

Andre Yee is an entrepreneur and technologist with nearly 20 years of experience in the business of technology.

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