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Cloud Talk

Andre Yee

Five Technology Predictions for 2009

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I know it's cliche but with the launch of this new blog in January, I can't resist the urge.

Here are my top five technology predictions for 2009

1. Cloud Computing Goes Mainstream

I almost titled this "SaaS is out, Cloud Computing is in" - as tongue in cheek response to the confusing distinctions between SaaS and Cloud Computing. But that's for another post. The main point here is that SaaS and "in-the-cloud" services will become commonplace for businesses. I know, many of you are already using Salesforce and other SaaS applications to run your business but the broader notion of utilizing services, resources like storage in the cloud is just getting started and in 2009, it'll go mainstream. Phil Wainwright has a great interview on Cloud Computing that you need to check out.


2. Rich Internet Applications (RIA) Crashes the Web 2.0 Party

Have you heard of RIA? Have any of you used a RIA app? In 2009, at least some of you will as RIA gains a foothold. RIA offers the promise of the next generation web client experience. Think of it as AJAX on steroids. Increasingly, the web application user experience has moved from static and boring to dynamic and interactive as AJAX programming has become more common. RIA takes this to the next level by offering the kind of dynamic user experience, previously available only on thick clients/desktop applications.


3. Businesses Get Social Media

Whether it's Facebook or Twitter, corporations have been trying to figure out how to leverage the potential of social media...and failing. However, through some trial, much error, and lessons learned, a number of models for leveraging social media are emerging. Finally in 2009, businesses will finally crack the code and leverage the vast opportunity that social media presents.


4. Green IT is the New, New Thing

According to IDC, in 1996, IT departments, spent 17 cents on the dollar to cool and power a new server. By 2006. that number jumped to 48 cents per dollar. Together with increasing social consciousness about the environment and noted VCs like John Doerr involved in the conversation, this has all the makings of a hot space. Will the economic slowdown keep it from taking off. Maybe, but I don't think so.


5. SOA gets Buried

There's been a little buzz about the future of Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) and its demise since Anne Thomas Manes' recent declaration. I agree but my comments are from someone who never got SOA in the first place. Like many others, the biggest reason I think it's immediate future is dim is the economy. First, selling anything in the biggest economic downturn in 50 years is tough, Seliing technology architecture projects is almost impossible. Yes, there will be exceptions but expect a significant decrease in these projects. SOA may live on as a technology architecture but as a business concept, it's dead. The second reason for its demise is that some of the initiatives that drive SOA development will move out to the Cloud. At best, SOA will get marginalized.


I plan to blog on some of these topics in this coming year and have the benefit of great conversations. Hope you can join in.

2 Comments

Excellent post.

One comment on SOA is that its value is not easily visible to the business community and end-users. If it take a lot of time to explain and define, it becomes a tough sale.

Kevin - thanks for your thoughts here. I absolutely agree - SOA is an architecture, it's plumbing, it's invisible - and as you say, it's tough to sell into an organization. To sell SOA in this economy, you have to connect it to business value and outcome.

Andre Yee blogs about cloud computing, SaaS, Web 2.0 and other emerging technologies that matter to businesses.

Andre Yee

Andre Yee is an entrepreneur and technologist with nearly 20 years of experience in the business of technology.

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